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FCA and BoE asked for no-deal Brexit analysis before Parliamentary vote

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Nicky Morgan, chair of the Treasury Committee, has asked the FCA and the Bank of England to publish their analyses into the impact of a Brexit withdrawal agreement "in good time before Parliament comes to vote on the Brexit deal". Morgan has today written to the Bank and FCA to further clarify the Committee’s expectations about the timing and content of the analysis. In her letters, she said the Committee expects the organisations to take into account the potential for a 'no-deal' scenario, as well as a third scenario in which the UK leaves the EU with no trade agreement at the end of a transition period. The Committee has appointed Professor Stephen Nickell, former OBR committee member, as a specialist advisor to work on its Brexit inquiry, and specifically to advise on the economic impact of the Withdrawal Agreement. Morgan has written to the Chancellor to request that Treasury officials will be allowed to engage with Professor Nickell as part of his work. She has also asked Mark Carney to provide public clarity on the briefing he gave to Cabinet last month, which was reported as containing a forecast that house prices would fall by a third in a ‘no deal’ scenario.

Nicky Morgan said: “Parliament must be provided with a full and frank assessment of the consequences of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement and future relationship with the EU before it comes to vote. Without such analysis, any vote cannot be considered meaningful. “When negotiations between the Government and the European Commission have concluded, the Committee has asked the Bank and the FCA to publish its analysis in good time before any Parliamentary votes on the Withdrawal Agreement and future relationship. “The Bank and the FCA should provide analysis of any deal agreed, and of a ‘no deal’ scenario, in the event of a breakdown in negotiations or a parliamentary vote against the Withdrawal Agreement. They should also consider providing analysis for the scenario in which the UK leaves the EU with no trade agreement at the end of a transition period. “This analysis will ensure that Parliament’s decisions are based on the best possible evidence.”

Posted by MMB Finance Swindon and Gloucester on 12 October 2018